It’s all about the team
Until the very final meter of Tuesday’s 39km team time trial in Montpellier it looked as though Lance Armstrong was going to grab the yellow jersey from Fabian Cancellara. That he didn’t take it may have disappointed those Armstrong fans looking for a Hollywood ending to a day that had already delivered so much. But those who support the Texan should be thrilled that his Astana team won the stage — four years after Armstrong last led a Tour team to a TTT victory — before even thinking about his not taking the jersey.
There is already enough pressure on Armstrong at this race — as anyone who has been caught up in the crazed, Lance-frenzy media scrums the last few days can testify. Adding the yellow jersey to that mix would have been insane at this early stage of the Tour.
There are those who say that had Armstrong taken the jersey, that would have ensured that his Astana teammate Alberto Contador — who’s only 19 seconds behind him on GC — wouldn’t dare attack him on the first mountaintop finish this coming Friday in Andorra.
But because Armstrong didn’t take the overall lead, the pressure remains on Cancellara and his Saxo Bank team; they will be obliged to ride tempo at the head of the race on Wednesday’s stage 5 to Perpignan — and probably on Thursday, too. “We also hope that some of the sprinters’ teams will help us,” Cancellara said in Montpellier Tuesday evening. “The Columbia team is very strong and they have the best sprinter.”
However, if there are any breakaways that threaten the yellow jersey, Saxo Bank has to respond. And with 20 riders still within two minutes of the race leader on GC, attacks will mot likely come. Such moves could come from the Garmin or Liquigas teams that both have genuine contenders and would love to get the publicity of holding the yellow jersey.
Meantime, Armstrong will be able to cruise through the next few days — and he might even get a chance to gain the one second he needs to take Cancellara’s jersey on Thursday’s uphill finish in Barcelona. Even if the GC remains the same until Friday, Astana is in a commanding position. And assuming that Cancellara does fade back in the mountains the Astana team could put any of their top men into the yellow jersey — but let’s wait until Friday to see what happens.
No one knows how Armstrong and Contador will race that stage or how strong they will be relative to each other. It’s possible that they could send one of their teammates into a break and force the other teams to chase. And the likely result of such a scenario would be the Texan or the Spaniard making a counterattack should, say, Levi Leipheimer get brought back.
More likely is a collective effort by Astana, just like the days when Johan Bruyneel was directing Armstrong at Discovery Channel or U.S. Postal Service. That would be the most effective way of eliminating the rivals closest to them on GC, like Garmin’s Brad Wiggins and Christian Vande Velde, Columbia’s Tony Martin and Mick Rogers, or Liquigas’s Roman Kreuziger and Vincenzo Nibali — all of whom are currently within 90 seconds of the yellow jersey.
Of the other pre-race contenders only Saxo Bank’s Andy Schleck (1:41 back), Cervélo’s Carlos Sastre (at 2:44) and Silence-Lotto’s Cadel Evans (at 2:59) have any chance of challenging for the podium. With all the mountains and more than 2,000km left to race, the result might well not be decided until, as Armstrong put it to the press Tuesday, “you write your final story on the top of Mont Ventoux” which I still almost three weeks’ away
Follow John’s twitter at twitter.com/johnwilcockson. His latest book, “Lance: The Making of the World’s Greatest Champion,” is available at velogear.com.
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