Pending final week, the Tour becomes a waiting game
When the first phase of the 96th Tour de France ended on Sunday with a near 80-man field sprint (on a mountain stage!), we knew that the race leaders were already looking ahead to the final week.
They all know that the stages in the Alps, followed by a time trial at Annecy and the penultimate day’s finish on Mont Ventoux, are going to decide this Tour’s outcome — and that the middle week between Monday’s rest day in Limoges and next Sunday’s stage 15 finish in Verbier, Switzerland, is just a period in which to tick things over.
In the first 1,377km of racing (out of a final total of 3,460km) over the past nine days, most of the pre-race favorites have gravitated to the top of the overall rankings. Contrary to what some experts predicted it has been the 54.5km of time-trial racing that has decided things thus far. And it was only the Montpellier team time trial that put 2008 podium finishers Carlos Sastre (Cervélo TestTeam) and Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto) in a three-minute hole.
The past three days in the Pyrénées — other than producing glorious scenery and a few casualties — brought us just two glimpses of the “real” Tour.
1. Alberto Contador (Astana), 34:24:27
2. Lance Armstrong (Astana), at 0:02
3. Levi Leipheimer (Astana), at 0:33
4. Brad Wiggins (Garmin), at 0:40
5. Andreas Klöden (Astana), at 0:48
6. Tony Martin (Columbia), at 0:54
7. Christian Vande Velde (Garmin), at 1:18
8. Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank), at 1:43
9. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas), at 1:48
10. Fränk Schleck (Saxo Bank), at 2:19
11. Carlos Sastre (Cervélo), at 2:46
12. Cadel Evans (Silence), at 3:01
The first came two bends from the top of the windswept climb to the Arcalis ski station in Andorra last Friday. That was where Alberto Contador, contrary to the instructions of his Astana team manager Johan Bruyneel, sprinted away from all the best climbers to gain 21 seconds — and lose the respect of most of his teammates.
What remains to be decided is whether Contador’s attack was the headstrong action of an immature athlete or a premeditated move by a true team leader. We will find the answer in the final week.
The other glimpse of what to expect in the Alps came on Saturday on the early slopes of the Cat. 1 Col d’Agnès. That’s where Saxo Bank’s Andy Schleck made one of his hallmark accelerations. Had the race gone over that climb’s western approach (where it’s a continuous 8- to 11-percent grade for 9km) then Schleck’s move would have caused a serious selection. But the eastern side has several false flats and even a short downhill, so the Luxembourg champ didn’t continue his bold thrust for more than 2km.
Surprises can always happen at the Tour — and that was the case when Lance Armstrong was the only favorite to make it onto the Columbia-HTC express that raced into La Grande Motte last Monday 41 seconds ahead of the pack. Armstrong showed in that move that he remains the savviest team leader in the race — and maybe he will make use of a similar opening on one of the stages in this second week to regain the initiative over Contador.
On paper the stage most likely to produce fireworks is this coming Friday’s semi-mountainous stage 13 through the Vosges, the hilly region of northeast France. But all the favorites will be prepared for that day. If Armstrong plays to his tactical strengths he might well do something unexpected another day — maybe on the previous day’s hilly stage 12 with its tricky run-in to Vittel.
But this second week’s racing, after the rest day, is most likely to produce three bunch finishes pitting sprinters Mark Cavendish (Columbia-HTC), Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Slipstream), Oscar Freire (Rabobank) and green-jersey leader Thor Hushovd (Cervélo TestTeam), while the other three stages should fall to breakaways.
And then, next Sunday, comes the underestimated summit finish at Verbier. That’s where the action should really begin.
Follow John’s twitter at twitter.com/johnwilcockson. His latest book, “Lance: The Making of the World’s Greatest Champion,” is available at www.velogear.com.
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